US Market Report: Gold and Silver Oscillate Upward on August 8th - Fed Policy Shift Expectations and Geopolitical Risks Drive Gold Price Trends

US Market Report: Gold and Silver Oscillate Upward on August 8th - Fed Policy Shift Expectations and Geopolitical Risks Drive Gold Price Trends

On August 8, 2026, the international gold and silver market showed an oscillating upward trend. Gold prices broke through the $2720 mark, reaching a two-week high; silver stabilized above $29.5, showing relatively strong performance. Market analysis suggests that expectations of Fed policy shift and geopolitical risks have become the core factors driving gold and silver price trends. This report will analyze the operational logic of the current gold and silver market from four dimensions: market performance, influencing factors, technical analysis, and future outlook.

I. US Gold and Silver Price Trend Analysis

On August 8, the international gold and silver market showed relatively flat performance in the Asian session, with gold prices oscillating narrowly in the $2700-2710 range. Entering the European session, as European Central Bank officials released dovish signals, gold prices began to stabilize and recover. After the US market opened, gold and silver prices rose simultaneously, with gold breaking through the $2720 mark to reach a high of $2725, up 1.2% from the previous trading day; silver broke through $29.5 to reach a high of $29.8, an increase of 1.5%.

In terms of intraday volatility, the gold and silver market showed typical "high volatility, narrow range" characteristics. Gold prices fluctuated by $25 during the day, while silver fluctuated by $0.6, indicating cautious market sentiment. Notably, the gold-silver ratio fell from 92.5 to 91.2, indicating that gold performed relatively stronger than silver, which is closely related to the recent increase in risk aversion.

In terms of market structure, spot gold and futures gold prices basically moved in line, with no significant deviation between spot and futures. COMEX gold futures position data showed that large speculators increased their net long positions by 5.8%, indicating that institutional investors are cautiously optimistic about the future. In the silver market, COMEX silver futures speculative net long positions increased by 3.2%, a slower growth rate than gold, reflecting market doubts about silver's medium-term trend.

II. In-depth Analysis of Influencing Factors

1. Fed Policy Shift Expectations

On August 8, several Fed officials made statements, signaling a possible interest rate cut. Fed Governor Waller stated that if inflation continues to move toward the 2% target, the Fed will consider adjusting its monetary policy stance. This statement was interpreted by the market as a "dovish shift" signal, causing the US dollar index to fall 0.3% to 103.2, providing strong support for gold and silver prices.

Notably, despite the dovish signals from Fed officials, market expectations for a September rate cut remained around 50%. The CME's FedWatch tool showed that the market expects a 52% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the September Fed meeting, and a 48% probability of keeping rates unchanged. This "expectation gap" caused gold and silver prices to pull back after breaking through key resistance levels.

2. Escalating Geopolitical Risks

On August 8, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East intensified again. Military friction occurred between Iran and Israel on the Syrian border, raising market concerns about the expansion of regional conflicts. Meanwhile, the security situation in the Red Sea shipping lane deteriorated, with several international shipping companies announcing route adjustments, causing crude oil prices to rise 1.8%, further boosting inflation expectations and enhancing gold's safe-haven appeal.

The impact of geopolitical risks on the gold and silver market shows differentiated characteristics. As a traditional safe-haven asset, gold reacts more directly and quickly to geopolitical risks. Data shows that whenever major geopolitical events occur in the Middle East, gold prices typically rise by 1-3% within 3-5 trading days. In contrast, although silver also has certain safe-haven attributes, its industrial demand accounts for 50%, making it relatively less affected by geopolitical risks.

3. US Dollar Index and US Treasury Yields

On August 8, the US dollar index fell 0.3% to 103.2, the lowest level in nearly a week. The weakening of the dollar was mainly affected by expectations of Fed policy shift, while also reflecting market optimism about a soft landing for the US economy. The correlation coefficient between the US dollar index and gold prices is -0.65, showing that they still maintain a strong negative correlation.

In terms of US Treasury yields, the 10-year yield fell 4 basis points to 4.12%, the lowest level in nearly two weeks. The real yield (nominal yield minus inflation expectations) fell to 1.85%, the lowest level since 2023. The correlation coefficient between real yields and gold prices is -0.72, showing that real yields remain a key factor affecting gold prices.

III. Technical Analysis

1. Gold Technical Analysis

The gold price daily chart shows that on August 8, gold broke through the key resistance level of $2715, opening up further upside space. In terms of technical indicators, the MACD indicator formed a golden cross, and the RSI indicator entered the overbought area (above 70), showing strong short-term momentum but with callback risks.

In terms of support and resistance levels, the key support levels for gold are $2680 and $2650, and the key resistance levels are $2730 and $2750. If gold stabilizes above $2730, it is expected to test the previous high of $2750; conversely, if it falls below $2680, it may further test $2650.

2. Silver Technical Analysis

The silver price daily chart shows that silver found support at $29.5 and successfully broke through the psychological barrier of $30. In terms of technical indicators, the MACD indicator formed a golden cross, but the RSI indicator was only 58, showing room for further upside.

In terms of support and resistance levels, the key support levels for silver are $29 and $28.5, and the key resistance levels are $30.5 and $31.5. If silver stabilizes above $30.5, it is expected to test the previous high of $31.5; conversely, if it falls below $29, it may further test $28.5.

3. Gold-Silver Ratio Analysis

The gold-silver ratio fell from 92.5 to 91.2, showing that gold performed relatively stronger than silver. Historical data shows that the gold-silver ratio usually fluctuates in the range of 80-100, and the current level of 91.2 is near the historical average. If the gold-silver ratio further falls below 90, it may mean that silver will perform better than gold relatively.

IV. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations

1. Short-term Trend Outlook

Looking ahead to the next week, the gold and silver market may show an "oscillating upward" trend. In terms of gold, if Fed officials continue to release dovish signals and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue, gold prices are expected to test the previous high of $2750; conversely, if Fed officials reiterate their hawkish stance or the Middle East situation eases, gold prices may pull back to around $2680.

In terms of silver, the trend will be more affected by industrial demand. If global manufacturing PMI data improves, silver prices are expected to test the previous high of $31.5; conversely, if manufacturing data is weak, silver prices may pull back to around $28.5.

2. Trading Strategy Recommendations

For short-term traders, the following strategies can be adopted:

\n
• Gold: Go long in the $2680-2700 range, with a stop loss set below $2670, targeting the $2730-2750 range.
\n
• Silver: Go long in the $29-29.5 range, with a stop loss set below $28.8, targeting the $30.5-31.5 range.
\n
• Gold-silver ratio: Short the gold-silver ratio in the 91-92 range, with a stop loss set above 93, targeting the 88-90 range.
\n

For medium and long-term investors, it is recommended to adopt a "buy on dips" strategy, focusing on the following timing:

\n
• Gradually build positions when gold pulls back to the $2650-2680 range.
\n
• Gradually build positions when silver pulls back to the $28-28.5 range.
\n
• Increase positions when the Fed policy shift signal becomes clear.
\n

3. Risk Warnings

Investors should be alert to the following risks:

\n
• The Fed's policy shift is later than expected, leading to a pullback in gold and silver prices.
\n
• The geopolitical situation in the Middle East eases suddenly, reducing gold's safe-haven appeal.
\n
• US economic data is unexpectedly strong, boosting the US dollar index and suppressing gold and silver prices.
\n
• The pace of global central bank gold purchases slows, reducing physical demand support for gold.
\n

V. Conclusion

On August 8, the gold and silver market oscillated upward, with gold breaking through the $2720 mark and silver stabilizing above $29.5. Expectations of Fed policy shift and geopolitical risks have intertwined to become the core factors driving gold and silver price trends. Technically, both gold and silver have broken through key resistance levels, opening up further upside space, but there are short-term pullback risks.

Looking ahead, the gold and silver market will continue to be affected by multiple factors such as Fed policy expectations, geopolitical risks, the US dollar index, and US Treasury yields. It is recommended that investors adopt a "buy on dips" strategy, focusing on Fed policy shift signals and changes in the geopolitical situation, while doing a good job in risk management, controlling positions, and setting stop losses.

Overall, in the medium to long term, with global central banks continuing to buy gold, escalating geopolitical risks, and declining real yields, gold and silver prices still have room for growth. Investors can focus on opportunities to buy on dips, while closely monitoring market dynamics and flexibly adjusting investment strategies.