US session gold and silver dip then rally: GDP and jobless data tug-of-war, gold holds above $2,400

Wednesday (July 30, 2026) US trading session, the precious metals market experienced a typical "data tug-of-war." Gold and silver prices quickly fell after the upward revision of Q2 GDP, but then initial jobless claims unexpectedly rose, driving funds back into safe-haven assets, and gold and silver prices staged a V-shaped rebound. At the New York close, COMEX gold futures settled at $2,408.6/oz, down 0.12% on the day, with an intraday low of $2,392; silver futures settled at $29.14/oz, narrowing its loss to 0.8%, but still showing weakness. Market sentiment was cautious, as investors awaited Friday's core PCE price index to gauge the Fed's future rate-cut path.

Data Shock: GDP Revision Pressures, Jobless Claims Rescue Bulls

At 20:30 Beijing time, the U.S. Commerce Department reported the revision of the second-quarter GDP annualized quarterly rate, which was revised sharply upward from 2.0% to 2.4%, above market expectations. The strong growth data eased recession fears, the dollar index briefly rose to 104.8, and the 10-year Treasury yield also climbed. Gold came under pressure and quickly broke below the $2,400 mark, touching a low of $2,392. However, precious metals bears could not maintain control. Subsequently, initial jobless claims for the week ending July 25 came in at 248,000, not only above the previous week's 239,000 but also above economists' expectations of 241,000, indicating signs of a moderate slowdown in the labor market. After the data release, market expectations for a Fed rate cut in September rebounded to 68%, the dollar and Treasury yields retreated, gold bulls quickly counterattacked, and prices rebounded $20 in 15 minutes, recovering above the $2,400 level.

Silver Diverges: Industrial Demand Weighs on Performance

Compared to gold's resilience, silver's rebound was notably weaker. COMEX silver futures fell sharply to $28.55 after the GDP data, and although they followed gold's bounce after the jobless claims data, they eventually settled at $29.14, down 0.8%. Silver's weakness mainly stemmed from pressure on industrial demand. The recent U.S. July manufacturing PMI preliminary reading came in at 49.3, remaining in contraction territory for the third consecutive month, while China's June industrial profit growth slowed, raising concerns about industrial metal demand. In addition, LBMA data showed a slight increase in silver inventories this week, and physical buying was relatively light. Technically, silver found short-term support near $29, but selling pressure above $29.5 remains heavy, and unless clear safe-haven buying emerges, a breakout in the near term is unlikely.

Geopolitical Risks Provide Floor Support

Although economic data dominated intraday moves, geopolitical factors remain a safety net for gold bulls. According to the Associated Press, ceasefire talks between Israel and Hezbollah are progressing slowly, with differences on withdrawal issues unresolved. Meanwhile, the Iran nuclear deal negotiations are deadlocked, and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said "the chance of reaching an agreement in the near term is extremely low." Additionally, Trump said at a campaign event that if negotiations with Iran fail, he would blame Vice President Vance, further highlighting the uncertainty in the Middle East. Amid wavering market sentiment, gold's safe-haven allocation demand persists. SPDR Gold Trust holdings data show net inflows of 3.2 tons in the first two days of this week, indicating institutional investors' long-term bullishness on gold.

Technical Focus on Key Range: $2,400 Becomes Bull-Bear Watershed

From a technical perspective, the V-shaped rebound in the US session reinforced the support validity of the $2,400 level. The 4-hour chart shows gold encountering resistance near the Bollinger Band middle line ($2,415), MACD fast and slow lines are converging around the zero line, and the RSI stands at 47, indicating insufficient bullish momentum. In the near term, key resistance lies at $2,425 (July 28 high) and $2,435 (200-hour moving average), while support is at $2,392 (intraday low) and $2,385 (July low cluster). If Friday's PCE data comes in below expectations, gold could break above $2,425 and challenge the $2,430-2,450 range; conversely, if the data surprises to the upside, gold could test the $2,390 support again. For silver, $29 is the near-term bull-bear balance point; a break below $28.5 could open downside to $28, while a close above $29.5 could pave the way toward the $30 level.

Trading Strategy Tip: Increased Volatility in US Session, Watch for PCE Data

For US session short-term traders, the current macro data-heavy period brings significantly expanded volatility. It is recommended to stay cautious before the PCE data release and avoid heavy chasing or panic selling. For trading, long positions can be placed near the $2,400 level with a stop-loss below $2,388 and a target of $2,420-2,425. If gold meets resistance near $2,435 with volume, consider a light short position with a stop-loss at $2,442. For silver, look for opportunities to short near $29.5 and buy near $29, and follow the trend on a breakout. Note that Friday's PCE data will directly affect market pricing of the Fed's rate-cut pace; any surprise could trigger a directional move in gold and silver, so risk management is essential.

Overall, the precious metals market underwent a "stress test" fueled by the GDP and jobless data in the US session, with gold showing strong safe-haven resilience. As the Fed's rate-cut cycle approaches, any data-driven pullback could be seen as a buying opportunity for medium-term positioning. Going forward, apart from the PCE data, developments in the Middle East and capital flows during the U.S. earnings season also warrant attention.