Article Summary: During US session on July 24, 2026, gold and silver prices fluctuated sharply. COMEX gold futures briefly touched $2,470/oz before retreating to around $2,450. Latest dovish Fed remarks reinforced rate cut expectations, while renewed Middle East tensions mixed safe-haven demand with profit-taking. This article analyzes driving factors behind the moves and key levels ahead.
During the US trading session on July 24, 2026, the precious metals market experienced sharp volatility. The main COMEX gold futures contract surged in early trading, briefly touching $2,470.3 per ounce, hitting a three-month high, before encountering profit-taking and closing at $2,450.8 per ounce, with gains narrowing to 1.2%. Silver outperformed, with COMEX silver futures approaching $31.8 per ounce, finally settling at $31.2 per ounce, up 2.5%.
Multiple Factors Converge: Precious Metals Surge Intraday
The core drivers behind the rally came from two aspects: First, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller delivered a dovish speech at the New York Economic Club, explicitly stating that "if inflation data continue to improve, a rate cut in September would be appropriate." The market immediately priced in a jump in the probability of a September rate cut from 68% to 82%, and the dollar index fell below the 104 mark, providing direct support for precious metals. Second, new developments in the Middle East: cross-border clashes between Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah escalated, resulting in 10 civilian casualties, and the UN urgently called for a ceasefire. Safe-haven funds poured into gold ETFs, with a net inflow of 12 tons in a single day.
US Session Trading Dynamics: Intense Bull-Bear Battle
After the US session opened, gold consolidated around $2,450, then surged nearly $20 within 15 minutes driven by Waller's remarks. However, in the afternoon New York session, a large number of futures and options contract expirations triggered algorithm-driven selling, pushing gold down quickly to $2,438, before recovering to above $2,450 by the close. Silver's moves were more extreme: early it followed gold higher, but US economic data (initial jobless claims lower than expected) briefly caused a 1.5% drop, before a violent rebound fueled by geopolitical news, eventually closing above $31. Notably, trading volume in the US session surged 40% from the previous day, indicating intensifying market divergence.
Technical Analysis and Fund Flow
- Gold: The daily chart broke above the previous high of $2,445 (May high), MACD golden cross moving up, but RSI entered the overbought zone above 70, posing a short-term pullback risk. Key resistance at $2,480 (2026 high), support at $2,420 (20-day moving average).
- Silver: After silver stood above $31, it formed the right shoulder of a "head and shoulders bottom" pattern, with a target pointed at $33. However, $30.5 is a crucial bull-bear pivot; losing it could lead back to the consolidation range.
- Fund flow: Holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, increased by 4.5 tons to 957 tons; COMEX gold net long positions rose 15%, indicating rising institutional bullish sentiment.
Outlook: Volatility Ahead of Rate Cut
The market widely expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in September, but the PCE data due on July 29 could be a near-term wild card. If core PCE comes in lower than expected, precious metals may challenge new highs; if higher, a pullback could occur. Additionally, the Middle East situation continues to escalate, with Iran announcing large-scale military drills on July 26, likely sustaining safe-haven buying. Strategy-wise, investors are advised to consider building long positions around $2,400, and buy silver on dips near the $30.5 support. Be cautious of profit-taking and a rebound in US Treasury yields, and strictly control positions.
As of press time, Asian session trading is calm, with gold at $2,452 per ounce and silver at $31.3 per ounce. Focus later tonight on US Markit PMI data and Fed officials' speeches.
